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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Personal Computing Device Market Expected to Decline through 2022


Global shipments of personal computing devices (PCDs) - composed of traditional PCs (desktop, notebooks and workstations) and tablets (slate and detachable) - declined 2.7% year over year in 2017.

The results, reported by IDC, illustrate a year in which commercial PC renewal momentum remained as the main catalyst in a market that was also tempered by lackluster demand for legacy form factor devices and component shortages. Nevertheless, key metrics including commercial activity and notebook shipments all reached positive growth patterns due to some emerging region recovery and ongoing business PC refresh.

Within the PCD market, traditional PCs are forecast to contract at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.9% over the 2017-2022 forecast, with volumes dropping from 259.4 million in 2017 to 248.3 million in 2022. However, when adding in detachable tablets such as the Microsoft Surface Pro, modest signs of growth are expected with a five-year CAGR of 0.1%. In the short term, 2018 is expected to see a year-over-year decline of 3.2% as consumer demand for slate tablets and legacy PC form factors remain weak. Commercial device replacements are expected to remain positive throughout the forecast period, though momentum slows after 2020 as mature markets largely end their transition to Windows 10. Commercial activity in emerging markets is expected to carry on longer, helping the overall commercial PCD market to achieve a CAGR of 0.7% between 2017 to 2022. After ending 2017 with modest growth, detachable tablets are also expected to improve in 2018 and 2019 due to ongoing commercial adoption.

Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2017-2022 (shipments in millions)

Product Category

2017 Shipments

2017 Share

2022 Shipments (forecast)

2022 Share (forecast)

2017-2022 CAGR (forecast)

Desktop + DT & Datacenter Workstation

97.8

23.1%

86.0

22.3%

-2.5%

Notebook + Mobile Workstation

161.6

38.2%

162.2

42.1%

0.1%

Detachable Tablet

21.9

5.2%

34.6

9.0%

9.6%

Slate Tablet

141.8

33.5%

102.9

26.7%

-6.2%

Grand Total

423.2

100.0%

385.7

100.0%

-1.8%



Traditional PC

259.4

61.3%

248.3

64.4%

-0.9%

Traditional PC + Detachable

281.3

66.5%

282.9

73.3%

0.1%

Total Tablet (Slate + Detachable)

163.8

38.7%

137.5

35.6%

-3.4%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, February 28, 2018

"As the broader PCD market continues to evolve, challenges remain but there are plenty of positive signs, too," said Tom Mainelli, program vice president with IDC's Devices and AR/VR programs. "New form factors such as convertibles and detachables continue to show long-term growth opportunities in both consumer and commercial markets. Chromebooks remain a bright spot with an increasing number of consumers embracing the platform. And the gaming category continues to grow, driving both positive volumes and ASP trends."



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