Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -8.7% in 2015 and not stabilize until 2017 due to a large inventory of notebooks and the impact of a strong dollar, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Although IDC had expected the second quarter of 2015 to be a transition period as vendors prepare for Windows 10 systems in the second half of the year, final results nonetheless shrank even more than expected due to a stubbornly large inventory of notebooks from prior quarters and severe constraints posed by the decline of major currencies relative to the US Dollar.

In addition to economic issues, free upgrades of Windows 10, a relative dearth of newer models in the short term, and channels that are reluctant to take stock also makes the prospect of growth unlikely through 2016. Perhaps as a further sign of a broader pullback, mobile devices can no longer be the sole culprit for PCs demise. Except for smartphones, which are still growing, the combined volume of PCs, tablets, and smartphones is expected to grow only in the single digits from 2015 through 2019 as saturation and "good enough computing" sentiments spread even into tablets, which are expected to see further volume decline in 2015.

Looking beyond the near term, IDC remains optimistic a modest recovery should come in 2017, when the prospect of the next refresh cycle and the cessation of a free Windows 10 upgrade should provide opportunities in notebooks and commercial segments. In emerging regions, where consumer budgets have been divided across a myriad of devices, PC purchases are also expected to regain some interest.

IDC expects total PC shipments to grow marginally in 2019 to 282.1 million from 281.6 million in 2015. The growth is expected to be led by portable PC such as mini notebook while desktop PC would continue to decline.